A HURRICANE WARNING remains in effect for Jamaica, as Category 4 Hurricane Melissa continues moving over the Caribbean Sea south of the island.
At 7:00 p.m., the centre of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.4 degrees North,
longitude 77.3 degrees West. This is 185 kilometres (115 miles) south-southwest of Kingston, or
156 kilometres (98 miles) south of Rocky Point in Clarendon, Jamaica.
Melissa is moving toward the west near 7 km/h (5mph) and a slow westward motion is expected tonight,
followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of
Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and over the island on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 230 km/h (145 mph), with higher gusts. Additional
intensification is forecast over the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa
is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or
Tuesday morning.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 km (30 miles) from the centre and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 335 km (205 miles).
Hurricane Melissa is expected to produce rainfall amounts reaching 350-700 mm (15-30 inches) over parts of Jamaica in the next few days, especially over eastern parishes, with higher amounts over
hilly terrain. Catastrophic flash floods and landslides are likely.
As the hurricane moves closer, tropical storm force winds are expected to spread from southeastern
sections of Jamaica to the northwest tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected by Monday.
Life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, is likely along the south
coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning and could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level,
near and to the east of where the centre of Melissa makes landfall.
Small craft operators, including fishers on the cays and banks, are strongly advised to remain in
safe harbour until all warning messages have been lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned
to normal.
The Meteorological Service continues to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Melissa,
and all interests are encouraged to pay special attention to further releases.
The next Bulletin on this system will be issued at 11:00 p.m. today.
Note:
HURRICANE WARNING means that the following dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Jamaica within 36 hours or less: Dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force;
Average winds 119 km/h (74mph or 64 knots) or higher.