By Prince Moore
The Planning Institute of Jamaica [PIOJ] is warning of a real risk of a recession if the economy continues to decline into the current quarter.
The PIOJ says Jamaica’s economy shrank sharply at the end of last year, and the country now faces a negative short-term outlook.
Director General of the PIOJ Dr Wayne Henry, speaking on Tuesday, said real value-added fell by 7.5 per cent, for the October to December, 2025 quarter, compared with the same period in 2024.
“This is the largest quarterly decline the July to September 2020 quarter, when the economy was impacted by Covid-19 pandemic,” he noted.
These results, “largely reflected the effects of Hurricane Melissa,” he said, adding that “combined, these shocks negatively impacted the performance of all industries, particularly agriculture, forestry and fishing, accommodation and food services activities, which captures most tourism activities, transport and storage, and electricity, water supply, and waste management.”
He revealed however that the estimated 7.5 per cent contraction is better than initially projected after Hurricane Melissa, “when the economy was forecast to decline within the region of eleven per cent to thirteen per cent.”